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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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